Philadelphia Daily News: Poll: Kerry takes Pa. lead Michael Moore, Howard Stern seem to be having impact

Philadelphia Daily News: "DEMOCRAT John Kerry leads President Bush by six points in Pennsylvania, and may get a bump from Howard Stern and Michael Moore, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll.

The results are a major turnaround from the March Keystone poll, which found Bush up by six points. The survey completed Sunday shows Kerry up 48 to 42 percent, with Ralph Nader picking up 3 percent and only 7 percent undecided.

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Kerry up 47 to 42 percent, with Nader getting 4 percent.

The poll also asked respondents whether they'd seen Michael Moore's anti-Bush film, "Fahrenheit 911," or had listened to radio personality Howard Stern, who's been attacking Bush for months.

Eight percent of those surveyed described themselves as regular Stern listeners, and a little more than one in four of them said Stern's opinions made them more likely to vote for Kerry than for Bush. Doing the math, Howard moves about 2 percent of voters, at least a little.

Eleven percent of the sample said they'd seen Moore's film, and 39 percent of them said it made them more likely to support the Democrat. That amounts to some impact on about 4 percent of the electorate.

"In a close election, these commentators, personalities, whatever you call them, they can have a marginal, but not unimportant effect on voters' choices," Madonna said. "In an election that comes down to 1 or 2 percent, you can look at a lot of things as making a difference. Here we have Nader, we have 'Fahrenheit 911,' and we have Howard."


by DAVE DAVIES
Philadelphia Daily News